Strait of Hormuz — Live Crisis Dashboard
Strait of Hormuz
Signal Dashboard
All commodity signals affected by Strait of Hormuz risk — Brent, WTI, spread, tanker rates, LNG, urea, gold. Brent is currently at $/bbl.
Energy signals — directly Hormuz-driven
Brent Crude
$
per barrel
···
BUY $50SELL $105
WTI Crude
$
per barrel
···
BUY $45SELL $95
Brent/WTI Spread
$8.90
geopolitical premium
···
Normal $2–5Peak $14
VLCC Rate
$320k
per day
SELL ZONE
BUY $15kSELL $75k
LNG Rate
$75k
per day
NEAR SELL
BUY $10kSELL $80k
Urea / Fertilizer
$530
per tonne
NEUTRAL
BUY $230SELL $620
Brent/WTI Spread — Hormuz premium history
2019
Saudi Aramco drone attack
$10 peak
The spread widens when Middle East supply risk is priced into Brent but not WTI, and compresses as that risk fades. Still below the $14 historical peak but above the $2–5 normal range — see the live reading above for where it stands right now.
Key questions to watch
If spread widens above $10
Risk premium re-pricing
A spread above $10 would confirm Middle East supply risk is being priced back into Brent relative to WTI. Watch VLCC rates and war-risk insurance costs for tankers — they tend to move alongside the spread when this happens.
If spread falls below $5
De-escalation confirmed
Risk premium unwinding in oil. But VLCC rates typically lag oil prices by weeks — physical tanker traffic only normalises once transit restrictions genuinely ease and war-risk insurance follows suit.
BDI next print
Watch for below 1,500
BDI is currently 3,180 pts. A fall below 1,500 would confirm a supply-shock story is feeding into real demand weakness, not just a supply-driven spike.
Tanker war-risk insurance
VLCC rate driver
War-risk insurance premiums for tankers transiting the Strait move with the perceived threat level. Elevated premiums keep VLCC spot rates high even when the headline oil price is calmer — watch VLCC alongside Brent, not instead of it.
Most affected stocks — by signal
Track all 21 signals live
Cycle score 73/100 · 5 signals in SELL zone · Recession 55%