On approximately 23-25 May 2026, President Trump stated publicly that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was "largely negotiated." Brent fell toward $100/bbl on the news — approaching the $90 sell-threshold for the first time since the crisis began in late February. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed to approximately $3.6/bbl, approaching the $3 level that signals a near-fully-priced reopening.
What Trump Said
Trump described the deal as covering Iranian mine clearing, a ceasefire extension, and Iran being permitted to sell oil. VP Vance expressed caution about the timeline. The deal was being facilitated through Pakistani and Qatari mediators. I cannot confirm the precise wording of Trump's statements — verify from primary news sources.
Market Impact at the Time
Brent fell from approximately $107 to $100 on the initial reports. VLCC rates remained elevated at approximately $380,000/day. Airline stocks rose 8-15% on the week. The move confirmed that markets had priced in a significant "Hormuz premium" that was beginning to unwind.
Signal Status at Publication
Brent: approximately $100/bbl — SELL zone (above $90 threshold, but falling toward it). Spread: approximately $3.6/bbl — WARN. VLCC: approximately $380k/day — deep SELL. Cycle score: approximately 75/100 — Late Expansion.
Note: This article was published on 25 May 2026 when Brent was at approximately $100. Since then, Brent has fallen further to approximately $92 as the deal has progressed. See the June 1 update for current signal status.
Not financial advice. Published 25 May 2026.